Neil Irwin

The New York Fed's March Empire State Manufacturing Survey index fell sharply.

Even among Republicans, sentiment declined by double digits.

Markets suggest a recession is more possible now than it was even a few weeks ago.

The Business Roundtable's quarterly survey showed a December boost receding.

Disinflation returned in February after months of data that appeared to show progress had stalled.

The Trump administration's willingness to shrug off risks of inflation or recession is now rattling financial markets.

He acknowledged softer survey data, but no policy moves appear imminent.

The new trade war is already affecting many more products than were ever hit in his first term.

President Trump has not offered any clear off-ramps or process by which importers can gain exclusions from the tariffs.

If you exclude government spending from GDP, you aren't getting a full picture of U.S. output.