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Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn

Blogger at The Upshot - The New York Times

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Influence score
38
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Location
United States
Languages
  • English
Covering topics
  • Demographics
  • Politics

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Recent Articles

nytimes.com

This Election, It May Actually Come Down to Turnout

Democrats have gained among high-turnout voters, while Donald Trump has made gains among groups that tend to show up only for presidential races, or not at all.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

What We Can (and Cannot) Learn From the Early Votes So Far

A news cycle that seems unfavorable to Donald Trump, and a look at what if anything can be gleaned from early voting.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

So, Can We Trust the Polls?

Recent changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that’s far from a guarantee.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

Why Are Democrats Having Such a Hard Time Beating Trump?

The national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Harris victory as many might imagine.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

Some Surprises in Last Battleground Polls, but Still a Deadlock

A rise for Kamala Harris in the Sun Belt, and a dip in the Northern swing states.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

¿Por qué a los demócratas les cuesta tanto vencer a Trump?

El entorno político nacional no es tan propicio para una victoria de Harris como muchos podrían imaginar.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

Some Late Shifts, but Polls Remain Closest They’ve Ever Been

The polls tend to err as a group in one direction or the other, so a fairly decisive win by either candidate is still possible.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

What We’ll Know and When We’ll Know It: A Guide to Election Night

The vote count will still feature “blue mirages” and “red mirages,” but they won’t be as extreme as in 2020.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios

A look at plausible outcomes that might wind up seeming obvious in hindsight.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

4 posibles escenarios para las elecciones en EE. UU.

Un análisis de los probables resultados que, en retrospectiva, podrían parecer obvios.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

New Battleground Polls Show Harris Has Fundamentally Changed the Race

On question after question, at least for now, most voters don’t seem to have major reservations about her.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

How Trump Won, Again

He made gains in every corner of the country and with nearly every demographic group.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

Así ganó Trump, otra vez

Ganó terreno en todos los rincones de Estados Unidos y con casi todos los grupos demográficos.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

Donald Trump’s America

How the former president staged his comeback and how he might change the direction of the country.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

On Midterms’ Hints, Down-Ballot Republicans and the Race for the House

What 2022 was telling us all along. And Trump has advantages that don’t seem transferable to his MAGA allies.
5 months ago
nytimes.com

How Democrats Lost Their Base and Their Message

Donald Trump’s populist pitch bumped Democrats off their traditional place in American politics.
4 months ago
nytimes.com

It Can’t Be Assumed That Higher Turnout Would Have Helped Harris

Voting records suggest Democrats who stayed home were less likely to support her, with no equivalent drop-off in Trump support among Republicans.
4 months ago
nytimes.com

Why Turnout Wasn’t the Democrats’ Problem

We explore the data behind that assumption.
4 months ago
nytimes.com

2024 Review: A Few Misses, but the Polls Got the Big Stories Right

They told us a lot about the major demographic and political trends, well before the election.
4 months ago
nytimes.com

Postmortems Are Bad at Predictions: Democrats May Just Need a ‘Chan...

An opening will probably emerge for Democrats in four years, but it may not be what the party and pundits expect today.
3 months ago
nytimes.com

Trump’s Re-election Defines a New Era of American Politics

The Obama-Romney race in 2012 was the last in a familiar pattern in U.S. politics, which has since become defined by Donald Trump’s conservative populism.
3 months ago