Nate Cohn

A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may be causing them to miss state shifts.

A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?

The polls are still so close that neither candidate has a significant advantage.

In just the last few years, any number of issues might have led people to reconsider their loyalties.

It’s getting easier to trust that the news isn’t driving the numbers, and we take a closer look at the Hispanic vote.

The latest Times/Siena polls show Harris slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, with a healthy lead in Nebraska’s Second District.

They’ve become cheap to produce but they underperform the competition, falling short of their original promise.

A review of the evidence that Donald Trump’s advantage relative to the national popular vote has declined significantly.

She gained a point in the polls after widely being seen as the debate winner.

In a shift from a Times/Siena survey last month, he leads in three Sun Belt battleground states.

El camino de Donald Trump a la victoria empieza en el Cinturón del Sol. Si gana estos tres estados, no necesitará muchos más.

Although it could simply reflect the normal variation of polling results, it may also point to a declining Trump edge in the Electoral College.

It could be another week until the full scope of possible gains is evident.

Almost 30 percent of voters said they needed to learn more about her.

It can be hard to tell when a debate bounce will last, but there are rough parameters that can guide us.

Each Monday morning for the next two months, we’ll take an in-depth look at what the polls can tell us.

Almost 30 percent of voters said they needed to learn more about her.

Es la primera encuesta nacional no partidista en un mes en que Donald Trump aventaja a la vicepresidenta; casi el 30 por ciento de los votantes dijo que necesitaban saber más sobre ella.

Unusual demographic patterns are fading, but there are still some differences from the 2020 race.

Los números empiezan a reflejar la votación reñida que los analistas esperaban antes de que Joe Biden abandonara la contienda.