Nate Cohn

Recent changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that’s far from a guarantee.

The national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Harris victory as many might imagine.

A rise for Kamala Harris in the Sun Belt, and a dip in the Northern swing states.

El entorno político nacional no es tan propicio para una victoria de Harris como muchos podrían imaginar.

The polls tend to err as a group in one direction or the other, so a fairly decisive win by either candidate is still possible.

A look at plausible outcomes that might wind up seeming obvious in hindsight.

The vote count will still feature “blue mirages” and “red mirages,” but they won’t be as extreme as in 2020.

Un análisis de los probables resultados que, en retrospectiva, podrían parecer obvios.

He made gains in every corner of the country and with nearly every demographic group.

What 2022 was telling us all along. And Trump has advantages that don’t seem transferable to his MAGA allies.