Jessica Taylor

With two weeks to go until Election Day, the Senate map still favors Republicans. Montana Sen. Jon Tester remains the likeliest Democrat to lose reelection, which along with the GOP’s certain pickup in West Virginia, would get Republicans to 51 seats. But the trio of “Blue Wall” states are getting tighter for Democrats as well.The next tier of four races in our Toss Up column will likely determine the size of a GOP majority. Historically, most of the contests in this column have broken one way, and we wouldn't be shocked to see that happen again.

With less than a month until Election Day, many of the Senate battlegrounds have begun to tighten. Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.

As Democrats struggle to keep their slim Senate majority — and as Montana continues to slip from their grip — they must find new offensive targets to maintain a plausible path to 50 seats.For months, the two GOP-held seats on the verge of competitiveness have been Texas and Florida, which have uniquely polarizing incumbents in Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively. But both states have remained just out of reach for Democrats in recent years, and could be even tougher for Democrats to win in a presidential year than in a midterm cycle.

Last week, we took a lengthy deep dive into the curious Nebraska Senate race, where Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is being challenged by Independent union leader Dan Osborn.

The Cornhusker State features two Senate elections this year, with Sen. Deb Fischer running for a third term and appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts vying to finish the remaining two years of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term. But it’s not that special election that is drawing renewed interest. Fischer faces a unique challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn who’s aiming to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and disaffected Republicans to pull off a monumental upset.

Democrats began this cycle with their toughest map in decades, having to defend the red states of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — in addition to a handful of other presidential battleground states.

Next Tuesday, the final primary of 2024 will determine the nominees in the most competitive gubernatorial race this cycle.With New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu not seeking a fifth two-year term, Democrats finally have a chance to flip a seat that has vexed them for eight years. This is the only contest for governor we still rate as a Toss Up, and Republicans are hopeful their likely nominee, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, can keep the governor’s mansion in GOP hands.

Although races for governor are fundamentally different from federal races, this summer there were still palpable worries among Democrats that diminished enthusiasm for President Joe Biden could cost them winnable races in North Carolina and Washington State.But with Vice President Kamala Harris atop the ticket, Democrats in both states are feeling better about their chances — and an influx of money and encouraging primary results are bolstering their hopes of keeping both open seats in their column.

In a cycle where Republicans are almost entirely on offense against Democrats, they’re still playing defense on abortion heading into Labor Day.According to data from AdImpact, in battleground Senate races, Democrats have already spent nearly $13 million on ads focusing on abortion rights and hammering their opponents over the issue. In the wake of Dobbs, it was a crucial issue in helping Democrats defend every incumbent in 2022 and flip the open Pennsylvania Senate race, and polling has shown it is a key motivator driving independent voters toward Democrats in Senate races.

The 2024 election has already been historic in a number of ways, but November could mark another recent electoral oddity — a rise in ticket-splitting between presidential and Senate races.New data from the Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project polling shows Democratic Senate candidates continuing to run strong in every single swing presidential state, far outpacing Vice President Kamala Harris and leading outside the margin of error in races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.