James Mackintosh

Selecting which Trump trades turn into Trump investments is just as difficult this time around as it was in his first term. The right bets might seem obvious now, but they did back then, too.

Investors believe they have a handle on what Donald Trump will do this time. But it’s not obvious that they are any better at assessing politics, or that Trump himself is any more predictable.

Some investments tied to a Trump win clearly worked, but with questionable logic. Others worked but at least in part for the wrong reasons. Some failed miserably.

These narratives can be useful when examining how markets behave, but don’t expect them to explain the economy.

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The U.S. central bank needs to kill its policy of “data dependency”—and get investors thinking about the bigger picture.

Deciding what sectors and companies are cyclical versus defensive has suddenly gotten a lot more complicated.

Getting out of the deflationary hole China dug itself is vital, and in the short run all stimulus will help. But for the long term, China needs to stop digging and start consuming.

Markets embraced the central bank’s spirit of dovishness following the big rate cut this past week.

When the yield curve turns positive, the country is usually about to plunge into recession. Hope this time relies on a few historical exceptions.