Howard Schneider

How monetary policy evolves from here will now hinge on data that is still lagging from the impact of the 43-day federal government shutdown.

The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged around 4.4% in November, the Chicago Federal Reserve estimated on Thursday, while closely watched data from a private provider added to the evidence that the U.S. labor market is slowly weakening.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, sometimes criticized for being too consensus-driven, may see a run of divided votes on interest rates that could weaken its policy message and intensify doubts about its independence from political influence.

Inflation has helped set back income growth to levels comparable to the slow recovery from the Great Recession more than a decade ago, according to an analysis of bank account data from the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

U.S. economic growth will increase slightly next year but employment gains will remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve will slow any further rate cuts, economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics said in the group's year-end forecast survey.

The job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December, though action beyond that depends on an upcoming flood of data delayed by the government shutdown, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday.

The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in September, but a rise in the unemployment rate and downward revisions to prior months still presented an ambiguous picture for Federal Reserve officials mulling whether further interest rate cuts are needed to bolster the labor market.

The Fed cut rates even as policymakers cautioned that doing so could risk entrenched inflation.

The federal deficit, meanwhile, will be even larger than the gain in gross domestic product.

Deep discounting by U.S. retailers on turkeys pushed the cost of the traditional Thanksgiving dinner lower for a third straight year, while costs for side dishes highlighted the country's nagging debate over the cost of living.

The minutes of the bank's October 28-29 meeting could provide more insight into the depth of the divide that has emerged among policymakers navigating an official data blackout, conflicting signals from available information, and a leadership transition during the final months of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's tenure in the top job.