George Hay

The Munich Security Conference showed a bloc focused on weaning itself off US might. Yet a market full of national champions, like $88 bln Rheinmetall, may mean higher prices and lower output. A “buy European” push, and leaders’ post-Greenland anxieties, could make things worse.

Fresh US and Israeli strikes attempted to remove Tehran’s leaders, rather than force a nuclear deal. Yet the president’s hope that Iranians will finish the job could backfire. The danger is retaliation and turmoil in the Gulf, and oil-fuelled inflation spikes further afield.

Tehran’s strikes on the likes of ‌UAE, Bahrain and Qatar dent their appeal as a home for foreign money. If Iran implodes, overseas investors may ​go cool on the whole region. Even if ​that doesn't happen, the conflict could boost Saudi ⁠Arabia at the expense of its neighbours.

With the ​UAE alone hit by ⁠2,000 Iranian strikes ​in two weeks, ​regional hubs like Dubai need better ways ​to repel unmanned ​craft. Firms like Germany's ‌TYTAN ⁠and Ukraine's SkyFall could meet that demand. If more ​contracts ​allow ⁠them to scale, Europe’s ​security could benefit ​too.

Doha’s GDP could sink ​13% in 2026, amid attacks that have taken out ‌17% of LNG capacity. Its local banks have faced big deposit outflows before. If Qatar has to cover lost revenue and liquidity, its $580 ​bln wealth fund can sell assets and its ​central bank can sell gold.

Gulf conflict has pushed European and Asian liquefied natural gas ​prices higher, but not American ones. Those with lots of ‌US supply, like Shell and TotalEnergies, can make tidy trading margins. And $41 bln Venture Global, with a boatload of un-contracted LNG, has struck gold.

Oil plunged to $94 a ​barrel after Washington and Tehran agreed a two-week ‌ceasefire. In a best-case scenario it could take months to restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Even then Iranian tolls, ​restocking depleted reserves and fears of future disruption ​will push up prices.

Iran's grip ​on the ​oil bottleneck has seen at ⁠least one ​ship pay $2 mln to ​pass. Even if it charged a lower rate ​of $1 per barrel ​on half of prewar traffic, ‌the ⁠fee over 25 years in today's money is $54 bln. ​That’s ​close ⁠to the possible cost of ​new pipelines to ​bypass ⁠the strait.

‘Defence-as-a-Service’ is more than SaaS with guns

Oil rose to $86 ​a barrel after the American president threatened a 20% ‌levy on cargoes transiting the Strait. The US once ruled out such fees entirely. Accepting the principle of tolls makes it easier for Iran to ​charge its own one, leaving the Hormuz route permanently ​pricier.