David Ristovski

June saw a modest rise in exports, but tariff headwinds dragged down broader second-quarter trade performance.

Exports saw a slight rebound in May, despite tariff headwinds. Following a record-low national trade balance in April—coinciding with the introduction of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports—Canada’s exports showed signs of recovery in May.

Trade tensions with the United States significantly impacted both exports and imports in April. Canadian exports fell 10.8 per cent, while imports were down 3.5 per cent. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened to $7.1 billion in April—the largest deficit on record.

Tariff threats have caused recent volatility in trade. Between September 2024 and January 2025, total exports increased by 15.7%.

U.S. tariff threats influenced trade in December and January. The United States government announced that tariffs on Canadian goods would be imposed, which may have induced importers to increase shipments to avoid additional costs.

Key Insights In November, exports of consumer goods posted larger gains than all other product categories. A sharp rise in...

Canada's merchandise exports were up 1.1 per cent in October mainly due to higher exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products.

Canada's merchandise exports were down 0.1 per cent in September while total imports fell 0.4 per cent.

Today's release of GDP estimates indicates that Canada’s economy manages to attain growth despite the negative impact from wildfires. However, the overall picture is far from rosy.

Exports of motor vehicles and parts posted sharper declines than all other product categories.

Exports of energy products and metal and non-metallic mineral products posted sharper increases than all other product categories.

21 hours ago ... Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products posted a sharper decline than all other product categories.

Canada’s merchandise exports were up 2.6 per cent in April on the back of higher exports of energy products.

Where Insights Meet Impact

• Canada's merchandise exports were down 1.7 per cent (month-over-month) in January.

Exports were down 1.9 per cent in December on the back of lower exports of motor vehicles and energy products, while imports edged up 0.2 per cent due to an increase in imports of consumer goods and metal and non-metallic mineral products.

The battle to tame inflation is far from over. The national inflation rate sat at 3.4 per cent in December and the path back to 2.0 per cent is proving to be difficult.

Exports are expected to outpace imports this year. Trade activity rebounded after the reopening of British Columbia marine ports.

Many factors could impact Canadian trade in the short-to-medium term. Heightened political tensions between Canada and India have led to a temporary pause of trade negotiations between the two nations.

Global economic growth is waning. In the second quarter of 2023, growth in Canadian imports exceeded growth in Canadian exports.