Christopher Joye

Australia’s federal budget has lurched into deficit as public spending surges to its highest level in 80 years.

Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders present.

Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.

Investors need to start preparing for how a re-elected Donald Trump will shape inflation, interest rates, and hence asset prices.

The “Sahm rule” suggests the US may be near a recession, and any sharp increase in unemployment will likely be met by aggressive Fed rate cuts.

Among the higher risk asset classes, global shares did very well, and gold even better. But the king of 2024 was bitcoin.

In total, 1131 businesses went bust in the month, which was the largest number since ASIC started collecting these statistics in 1999.

The spike in US inflation has caught equity and debt investors napping.

Central banks delayed rate increases after the pandemic on the basis they could not forecast the future, but now use rubbery projections to rationalise rate cuts.

While the “everything” rally has excited risk junkies, inflation might spoil the party again.