Bill Wood

Bill Wood: "The widely anticipated effects of President Donald Trump's tariff program are starting to emerge in the macroeconomic data. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report on import prices shows costs for imported goods are rising at a faster rate. So far, the increases are modest and expected — but the trend will likely get worse before it gets better. That raises the question: How much worse?"

Numbers That Matter Live June 2025: Plastics industry braces for a murky slowdown

U.S. imports plunged in response to anticipated tariffs, temporarily pushing GDP into negative territory, but consumer spending and other indicators suggest the economy has not yet entered a recession. Bill Wood, PN economics editor, notes in his latest Numbers Matter Shorts that while the decline in plastics imports is a positive sign, continued volatility and weak manufacturing data leave the outlook uncertain. He emphasized that tariffs are likely here to stay as part of the broader fiscal strategy.

Plastics News Economics Editor Bill Wood: "There's a strong case to be made that the U.S. plastics industry — and the broader domestic manufacturing sector — is approaching a genuine inflection point. It might be messy, it might be inconvenient, and it may be the result of flawed planning or execution, or both. But the signs are flashing."

Recent data highlights a historic spike in the U.S. trade deficit, fueling economic uncertainty and concerns about the long-term effectiveness of current policy measures.

The U.S. plastics industry is off to a rough start in 2025, with production declining as demand weakens Plastics News Economics Editor Bill Wood points out in this free video. A slowdown in the auto and housing sectors is driving the downturn, while manufacturers increasingly turn to alternative materials like glass and paper. With economic uncertainty ahead, the industry faces ongoing challenges.

Economics Editor Bill Wood continues to monitor the U.S. economy for a potential "soft landing" scenario as inflation eases and the job market remains robust. But concerns linger, particularly in the manufacturing and residential construction sectors, which struggle due to high interest and mortgage rates. Also supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risks and election uncertainties pose potential challenges. 

Bill Wood: "The stock market was indeed beginning to look a bit irrational as we started the second half of 2024, but history has taught me the stock market tends to correct itself regardless of my opinion. Nevertheless, there are some other trends or risks in the overall economy that have me concerned at the present time because they do not appear to be self-correcting."

<p>The Fed is still trying to get inflation under control, and interest rates may remain high for the next year. In the June Numbers that Matter editorial livestream, Bill Wood talked about the impact that’s having on <a href=“http://www.plasticsnews.com/video/what-soft-landing-economist-gives-his-criteria-and-why-we-arent-there-yet” class=” inline-paragraph-link”>plastics end markets</a>. </p>

<p class=“MsoNormal”>In 2021, the American business sector did something it had never done before: It invested more money in intellectual property products than it did in equipment.</p><p></p>

<p>Bill Wood: “Many of you are still having difficulty finding qualified workers, and all of you are experiencing rapidly rising labor costs. This comes at a time when you have no ability to pass these higher costs along. In other words, you cannot afford to lose good workers, but it is becoming so expensive that you cannot afford to keep them either.”</p>

In 2022, the total number of house starts declined by an estimated 2 percent compared with 2021. For 2023, Economics Editor Bill Wood’s forecast calls for the annual total to drop another 10-15 percent.

Even if everything goes as planned, Economics Editor Bill Wood says don’t expect the Consumer Price Index curve to get down to normal levels for another five or six quarters.

Bill Wood: “The U.S. dollar is the dominant currency in world trade. ... For the rest of the world, it means that if a country wants to engage in trade, its markets will be directly and heavily influenced by the value of the U.S. dollar.”

Rising energy prices not only push materials prices higher, but also they push up the cost of running our factories. Resin prices do not follow every wrinkle in the oil market. But, over time, the correlation is quite robust.

Plastics processors have witnessed a wide variety of outcomes from the onset of the pandemic, but most of them are facing the same two prevailing market forces at the moment: a sharp increase in materials prices and rising pressure on wages.

<p>My current outlook calls for resin prices to come in flat to down through the first few months of this year, and then climb gradually higher in the second half.</p>