Ben Casselman

Past economic cycles show that unemployment starts to tick up ahead of a recession, with wide-scale layoffs coming only later.

Updated figures show that gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew faster in 2021, 2022 and early 2023 than previously reported.

A record surge in new businesses has helped drive job growth, and could have longer-term benefits.

After months of wobbling, a fresh jobs report showed that hiring and wage growth are strong, aligning with other robust economic data.

The labor market bounced back in September, adding 254,000 jobs, a sign that economic growth remains solid. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent.

On average, pay has risen faster than prices in recent years. But the overall picture is complicated — and it’s not just facts versus “vibes.”

In a key economic report released just days before the presidential election, gross economic product rose at a 2.8 percent rate in the third quarter.

Employers added 12,000 jobs in October, with hiring hit by strikes and storms. The unemployment rate was steady, at 4.1 percent, in the last major report before an election in which the economy is a top issue for voters.

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Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared to its highest point since Donald J. Trump left the White House, while declining among Democrats.