Thomas Westwater

Also five-year T-note, gold, crude oil and Japanese yen futures Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (/NQ): +0.12% Five-year T-note futures (/ZF): +0.06% Gold futures (/GC): +0.25% Crude oil futures (/CL): +0.63% Japanese yen futures (/6J): +0.31% U.S. equity markets continue to chop around as traders await the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation on Thursday. Bonds are mostly higher, though for the second consecutive day yields bottomed overnight ahead of the European trading sess…

Oil prices rise to $80 per barrel level Oil price challenge $80/barrel as bullish factors converge. The EIA report shows bullish product drawdowns that surprised analysts. Backdrop supports oil prices in $81-$84 range Friday’s NFP poses risk. Crude oil futures (/CLJ4) challenged the $80/barrel level on Wednesday as bullish tailwinds converged to aid the commodity’s ascent, which has been in place since early February. With prices up nearly 20% since then, you’d expect there to be some consolidat…

Traders are eying inventory amid Russian refinery attacks. Will prices continue to rise as the market tightens? Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refiners underpin oil prices. Traders look to inventory reports after surprise oil and fuel withdrawals last week. Oil prices may trade sideways after an impressive run over the last month. Crude oil prices (/CLK4) extended higher today to $83 per barrel, the highest since Oct. 20, as energy traders digested the potential impact on global supply from…

A brief overview of the Trans Mountain expansion project The Trans Mountain oil pipeline project is nearly operational. Increased Canadian oil flow to the Pacific should bolster Canada’s oil revenues. U.S. refiners face slightly tighter margins as Western Canada Select discount tightens. An expansion project over a decade in the making is finally nearing completion, and it could change the way the North American oil market operates. The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion will increase the system’…

Crude oil prices become volatile as the world awaits a suspected Iranian response to Israel Oil prices reverse losses on Thursday as geopolitical fears mount. Iranian response against Israel expected as soon as Friday. Crude prices may unwind recent gains once the event risks pass. Crude oil futures (/CLK4) reversed early losses and turned positive Thursday afternoon as geopolitical tensions ramped up amid reports that Iran would soon respond to this week’s strike by Israel that killed several c…

The numbers surprised observers, with the headline figure showing a build of 3.7 million barrels vs. an expected 1.55 million Crude oil prices are cutting gains after a bearish EIA report. Crack spreads are dropping as implied demand cools. Oil prices may reestablish the May 77/81 range. Crude oil prices (/CLN4) were up over 1% this morning on optimism that cooling inflation would allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice by 2025. However, the commodity quickly trimmed most…

Currency weakens despite warning from top Japanese foreign exchange (FX) officials The Japanese yen is falling despite warnings from officials. Intervention risk is present as the exchange rate nears 160. Traders who want to participate in a possible intervention rally should monitor price action. The Japanese yen (/6JU4) is trading near its lowest level since 1990. In fact, it’s s low as it was when Japanese authorities intervened in the market, bringing back the risk of another currency interv…

Market scores fourth weekly gain as it weighs U.S. inventory, Canadian wildfires and OPEC actions Crude oil prices are on track to record a fourth weekly gain. Demand hopes are fueling a rally, but prices near the mid 80s are at risk. More inventory draws are needed to support a bullish narrative. Crude oil set to record fourth weekly gain as demand picks up Crude oil prices (/CLQ4) are nearly unchanged this morning trading, but the commodity is on track to record a fourth weekly gain. That woul…

Bulls are rallying as inventory figures support buying. Plus, the OPEC July report notes deficits. Crude oil bulls are rallying into the third quarter as inventory figures support buying. OPEC sees crude oil deficits in Q3 in its July report. Key oil spreads show a tightening physical market. A rebound in Chinese demand may underpin physical tightness in the U.S. market. Crude oil prices (/CLQ4) rose for a second day today, extending July’s gain for the commodity to 1.6% and putting it on a soli…

Prices remain supported as time spread backwardation increases Crude oil prices remain supported as time spread backwardation increases. Russia export cuts will support inventory drawdowns in the coming months. Chinese crude buying may rebound in the coming months following OSP cuts. The broader Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) alliance, known as OPEC+, is moving toward tighter compliance with the group’s production cut targets . Bloomberg reported Russian crude exports measu…