Marc Hochstein

Tuesday night's election returns were a shocker if you only watched CNN. But not if you'd looked at the betting all along.

As much as a third of the prediction market's volume is inflated by traders acting as the buyer and seller — an illegal practice in TradFi — on the same trades, Fortune reported. Some could be doing it to farm a future token airdrop.

Separately, Kalshi has also begun accepting deposits of the USDC stablecoin, Fortune reported.

Better Markets is using Polymarket's "French connection" as ammo against the prediction market's regulated competitor.

The former president's probability of retaking the White House slid to 59% Wednesday before rebounding.

"Of course I'm not Satoshi," Todd told CoinDesk Tuesday, saying that filmmaker Cullen Hoback was "grasping at straws."

With a month to go before Election Day, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have listed prediction markets on the race for the White House.

Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx is also preparing presidential and Congressional contracts following the latest court defeat for the CFTC.

The prediction market would use the potential token "as a way for users to validate the outcome of real-world events," the Information reported. It's unclear what that would mean for UMA, the oracle Polymarket uses.

Unlike industry leader Polymarket, Limitless isn't focusing on the election. It's carving out a niche with bets that expire quickly and with user-created markets.

The regulator asked the court to extend the pause of Kalshi's political prediction markets for as long as the agency's appeal is pending.

Here's how to listen to Thursday's hearing in the closely watched federal court case over political prediction markets, and why it matters.

Traders see only a 17% chance that Donald Trump will say "crypto" or "bitcoin" and just 13% for Kamala Harris.

The judge in the prediction market's court case against the CFTC has called a hearing Thursday over the regulator's motion for a two-week delay.

The prediction market site "has staked its future on ... these markets," it told a court, pushing back against the CFTC's motion for a two-week wait.

The agency says it can't make "an informed decision" about whether to appeal the judge's decision in Kalshi's favor until it knows her as-yet-unpublished rationale.

With two months to go before the election, the U.S.-regulated platform may now get a sliver of the 2024 political betting bonanza that's been dominated by crypto-based rival Polymarket.

Once again, the DOGS token is gumming up the works.

Une fois de plus, le jeton DOGS bloque les rouages.

The mics probably won't be muted, traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform are signaling.