Alex Lawler

Global oil supply and demand look set to fall further ‌than previously expected this year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as a lack of progress in ending the conflict in the Middle East delays the return of normal Gulf oil flows into 2027 and sends fuel prices soaring.

OPEC oil ‌output fell in August, a Reuters survey found, as Saudi exports ​faced new disruption due to ​the war in Iran and ⁠a U.S. blockade cut Iran's ​shipments.

Oil prices topped $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first ​time in six weeks as an escalation in fighting by U.S. and Iranian forces deepened concerns over supply from the region and raised fears of inflationary ‌pressures and higher energy costs for consumers and businesses.

Six months into the Iran war, the world's most powerful oil alliance, OPEC+, finds itself in an unfamiliar position: unable to ​influence a market it once helped shape.

OPEC oil ​output rose further in July, a Reuters survey ‌found, as Gulf members restored supplies that were shut due to the Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day, a copy ​of its monthly report showed, marking the third straight downward revision.

The group has agreed in principle to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day ​from August.

The Iran war has created the largest oil supply shock ever in terms of daily production losses but the 1979 Iranian Revolution remains the biggest oil crisis by cumulative supply loss, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency, OPEC and U.S. Department of Energy data.

OPEC oil ​output in June rose from its lowest in more ‌than two decades, a Reuters survey found, as Gulf members began reviving supplies shut during the Iran war and effective closure of the Strait ​of Hormuz.

OPEC maintained its forecast for robust global oil demand growth in ​the next four years on Thursday and nudged up its longer-term view, citing a worldwide shift towards more supportive ‌policies for oil use and saying there was no sign demand would peak.