Alex Lawler

The world oil market will see a small surplus in 2026 after OPEC+ production increases and higher supply from other producers, an OPEC report showed on Wednesday, a further shift from its earlier projections of a deficit.

OPEC's oil output rose further in October after an OPEC+ agreement to raise production, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, though the scale of the increase slowed sharply from September and the summer months.

OPEC+ will likely agree on Sunday another small hike in oil output targets for December, three sources familiar with the talks said, as the group moderates its drive to regain market share amid predictions of a supply glut next year.

The world oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish, the International Energy Agency predicted on Tuesday.

World oil supply is expected to closely match demand next year as the wider OPEC+ group increases production, an OPEC report showed on Monday, marking a change from last month's outlook, which projected a supply shortfall in 2026.

OPEC+ oil-producing countries opted for only a modest rise to November output due to concerns about a potential global glut, sources within the group said, as non-OPEC supply also rises while fuel demand growth slows.

OPEC+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), the same fairly modest increase as in October, three people close to the matter said on Sunday.

OPEC's oil output rose further in September after an OPEC+ agreement to raise production, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, mainly due to higher production by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

An OPEC+ panel stressed the need for achieving full compliance with oil output agreements and extra output cuts that some members are required to make to compensate for earlier exceeding quotas at a meeting on Wednesday, OPEC said in a statement.

OPEC+ may speed up production increases in November from the 137,000 barrels per day hike it made for October at its meeting on Sunday as its leader Saudi Arabia pushes to regain market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.